Wednesday, July 21, 2010

Da Daily 7/21/2010

I have to start the day off with Mama Nature.

Remember this from last Sunday?

"Next EQ on the 20th or 21st. More than likely, 6+ again. We'll see..."

Well, well, well...
This one rocked Papa New Guinea yesterday and this one struck off Indonesia today. We might see another today but I predict not much 6+ shaking to come for at least a few days. I 'aint no prophet, but hit me up if you'd like to know how I dooz what I duz. OK, on to the next...

China flooding kills 701.  A lot is going on in our world.

This is a good read from Time... Doomsday: Could BP Spill Kill All Life On Earth?

Ah, many of nature's wonders. Just thought this was mad cool. I love Pele... if you happen to be in the BI then you could literally, "go wit da flow". Click here and Enjoy the show.

Money Talk
Otay, on financials...

First, we start yesterday's 75 point rally off with regional and state unemployment rates lower in June. Of course everyone (except mokes like me and similar) and there mama is yelling, "stocks are great, recovery is here!".

Then, everyone (except mokes like me and similar) and there mama, took cracks this morning (and also, as of now are still taking cracks) because 'The Man' had announced...

Bernanke says outlook uncertain
2:11p ET July 21, 2010 (MarketWatch)

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke said Wednesday the outlook for the economy is "unusually uncertain" and the Fed is willing to do more if growth proved to be weaker than forecast.

"We remain prepared to take further policy actions as needed to foster a return" to full employment with low and stable inflation, Bernanke said in written testimony prepared for the Senate Banking Committee.

Bernanke did not go further and elaborate on what the Fed might do.

His comments did not stray from the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's June policy meeting released last week.

In his prepared remarks, he stressed that the economy was growing and made no mention of the most recent disappointing economic news.

Employment, retail sales, industrial production and consumer sentiment data have been soft.

Despite these signs of a slowdown, Bernanke, in essence, kept a stiff upper lip. "The economic expansion that began in the middle of last year is proceeding at a moderate pace," he said.

Consumer and business spending should keep it going, he said.

"Although fiscal policy and inventory restocking will likely be providing less impetus to the recovery than they have in recent quarters, rising demand from households and businesses should help sustain growth," Bernanke said.

The Fed is forecasting growth in gross domestic product of 3% to 3.5% this year. This is above private-sector forecasts, which are expecting GDP to rise about 2.6% this year.

Bernanke repeated that the FOMC continues to expect that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.

He said the housing market remains "weak" and he said it will take "a significant amount of time" to restore the nearly 8.5 million jobs lost in the Great Recession.

"Financial conditions... have become less supportive of economic growth in recent months," Bernanke said. Bank loans outstanding have continued to contract.

On the positive side, Bernanke said there were some signs that the decline in spending on office buildings and factories may be slowing. He said U.S. exports have been expanding.

"My colleagues on the FOMC and I expect continued moderate growth, a gradual decline in the unemployment rate, and subdued inflation over the next several years," Bernanke said.

The majority of the FOMC said the risks to growth have switched to the downside, Bernanke noted.

The Fed slashed the funds rate close to zero in late 2008 and has kept rates there ever since.

The central bank has also purchased over $1 trillion dollars in housing-related assets in an attempt to keep long-term market interest rates low.

"Inflation has remained low" Bernanke said, with core inflation trending down over the past two years. Slack in labor markets had damped wage and price pressures and productivity gains have further reduced costs, he said.

In his prepared remarks, Bernanke talked a lot about the Fed's exit strategy from ultra-accommodative policy. In contrast, he may no additional comments about what further steps the Fed might take if the economy faltered.

He did not mention what the triggers to more asset purchases might be. Fed officials have said in recent speeches that the bar for further easing is quite high.

At some point, Bernanke said, the Fed must begin raising interest rates. It also plans to sell the housing-related assets to get back to a Treasuries-only portfolio.

"Such sales shall be implemented in accordance with a framework communicated well in advance and will be conducted at a gradual pace," Bernanke said.

Bernanke did not spare the senators from technical details of the Fed's balance sheet. He told them the Fed is considering reinvesting maturing Treasuries into shorter-term issues to lower the average maturity of its holdings. At the moment, the Fed reinvests in issues of identical duration.



...and so the flow shifted from stocks to treasuries and other such 'safety devices' and the rest is history (or should I say, history repeats). Don't forget the high frequency trading, skimming a few bucks, milliseconds before each buy/sell. Oh, those little black boxes, sh#!, I wish I had a few. BTW... THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE!!!

Green Day
Oakland council OK's plan to set up Pot factories. Teeeehuuu! I'm guessing this is why my boy DOS went on a vacate to Oak-town, all kelly-greened out (joke).

Missing Time
Here's an interesting read... Is Time Disappearing From The Universe?

There's a ton of the 'inevitable war' news, but I'll post it later, unless it starts to get too hot. Other than that, enjoy Hump Day.

Stay Strong and Aloha Always!

Grindman