Grindman Blog 8/10/2011

Howzit Everybody,

Ya, I know it's been a minute, but..

I'm back.

Uh, I think pappy used to say, "prevention is worth an ounce of cure".. just this time, I don't think there's a cure, but there is some prevention, at least to keep some of your sanity, and it ain't money. Someone told me that money can't buy happiness. Well, for the past 10 years, I had to find that out for myself. 10 years later, my work days have been slowly replaced with depositing as much freedom, balance, and peace of mind into my physical/mental/social/emotional/spiritual account as needed.. and I could always use more.. we all could.

If this is your 1st time receiving one of these emails, it means that you mean a lot to me and I've added you to a list of people that have played or continue to play a big part in my life. If this is your 1st time reading one of these emails, don't worry, I haven't lost my marbles.. this is how I used to communicate to my network of "Bears" or investors that invest on the downside on the stock market. Back when Dus and I were actively shorting the stock exchange, these emails would go out, kinda like a foresight of things to come. It was my way of keeping myself sane in the wee hours of the morning when I'd wake up at 2:30am to work the New York Stock Exchange from my Hawaii abode.. and help a few fellow investors out all at the same time. I'd post my thoughts of where I thought things were going, based on the headlines of the day. Hey, Bad news means Good news to a "Bear".. you can make an educational guess to where our future is headed, to an extent, and best prepare for things to come. What these emails really do for the really observant, is.. it creates a present snapshot for the opportunist, to capitalize on meeting the new demand(s) arising from the current happenings around our globe. That's the money shot right there, for those of you who wanna make some. Oh, and if you do.. please share. Mahaloz

Ok, so let's get down to business. With all the market action that's been happening recently, I felt compelled to drop an email to all about the latest. Read for yourself..

Global Unrest based on the Economy - http://www.cnbc.com/id/44073673

With the whole thing leading to FB arrests.. chances are, there may be some sort of social media regulations or changes coming about (I'm prolly a year or so ahead again on this one though).

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2011/aug/09/glasgow-boy-arrested-facebook-riots

http://www.suite101.com/content/uk-riots-2011-facebook-arrests-in-social-media-battleground-a383957

Not to mention.. today we were off by 80 cents to hit $1,800 oz for gold! You'll prolly hear about this on your news station tonight (..or maybe not). Aaron and Malu, I guess it's almost time.. $200 more and were going! I think we might need to bus up some snowbirds there though? Anyways, I can't wait to get my hands dirty for that adventure.. Yeeeeee!!

Oil was down to $82 a barrel from recently being up at $94. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Oil-near-82-as-Fed-eyes-low-apf-79043105.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

You know what that means peeps.. it's almost like were in a full-on 2nd recession. With the failed recovery, and the feds promising to keep rates low, it seems there might be some massive deflation underway. But then again, something magically happens behind the scenes and presto! Were good.. lol. Good news though.. the lower prices should show up at your local gas pump sometime soon.

Largest Solar Flare in Years. This is the biggest in Solar Cycle 24 which happens to hit it's maximum 'coincidentally' on December 21, 2012. Ah, I just don't think it will be the end of the world. But I do think it will be a little shaky. We've correlated a 'relationship' between solar disturbances and 6+ earthquakes happening within 48 hours after the event. At least we think we have.. Aaron and I. I was wrong earlier this year about 1 of 'em, but we nailed EVERY other one that came about! Even, Japans. I don't THINK this one will have much effect on us because of the position of the solar event. Well, hopefully anyways.) - http://www.space.com/12580-sun-unleashes-major-solar-flare.html

Remember, make the most of what you got.. cuz what you got is usually a lot more than you thought. Sometimes you just gotta stop and take inventory.. on yourself, you know?

Until next time..

Stay Strong and Aloha Always,

Sam

Da Daily 7/22/2010

Howzit Hoi Polloi, hope all is well. We starts our day off with...

Feisty Financials
So... Bernanke kept it real yesterday, which caused the market to nosedive... and then of course, the markets bounce this morning. Then we get the latest employment figures, which increases by 37,000 claims for the week ending July 17th. It's otay, Bernanke spoke of 7.1% unemployment by the end of 2012. What a ways to wait. I guess our $3.7 trillion pumped-economy 'recovery' is "unusually uncertain". I'd say so myself. Let me comment on something though. Keep an eye on reductions in the nations workforce, possibly coming from people who were looking for work but have now gave up searching because nothing's out there for them.

Then there's news that the Mortgage Modification program isn't working...

"The bailout has provided up to $50 billion for the mortgage modification programs. So far, about $248 million in bailout money has been spent on the program."

Sorry peeps, more foreclosures to come. Oh, and existing home sales are down 5.1%. Rising and falling are both happening at the same time in this case. Positive or negative... it's all in the way you take it in. If your thinking of buying 'conventionally', 30 year mortgage rates are at a record low 4.56%. Remember... that's if you can qualify. I know how it's been for us as investors to qualify for loans where we could back it with money we already had in the bank; nearly impossible. It's otay, unconventional is our middle name. 

Slick News
Ships ready to leave leaky Gulf well as tropical storm brews, and it is heading from the Bahamas to the BP spill area. You may also want to watch this slick closely... China scrambles to contain oil spill. At 1,500 tons of oil spilled, it's roughly 6% of the BP spill, which is a s#!tload. Mama Nature must be extremely upset. We humans are really effing up, badly. I think she might just have to step in to end the madness. Just hope it's not too harsh. 

Not much more than that at 5:45am Hawaii(an) Time...

Stay Strong and Aloha Always!

Grindman

Da Daily 7/21/2010

I have to start the day off with Mama Nature.

Remember this from last Sunday?

"Next EQ on the 20th or 21st. More than likely, 6+ again. We'll see..."

Well, well, well...
This one rocked Papa New Guinea yesterday and this one struck off Indonesia today. We might see another today but I predict not much 6+ shaking to come for at least a few days. I 'aint no prophet, but hit me up if you'd like to know how I dooz what I duz. OK, on to the next...

China flooding kills 701.  A lot is going on in our world.

This is a good read from Time... Doomsday: Could BP Spill Kill All Life On Earth?

Ah, many of nature's wonders. Just thought this was mad cool. I love Pele... if you happen to be in the BI then you could literally, "go wit da flow". Click here and Enjoy the show.

Money Talk
Otay, on financials...

First, we start yesterday's 75 point rally off with regional and state unemployment rates lower in June. Of course everyone (except mokes like me and similar) and there mama is yelling, "stocks are great, recovery is here!".

Then, everyone (except mokes like me and similar) and there mama, took cracks this morning (and also, as of now are still taking cracks) because 'The Man' had announced...

Bernanke says outlook uncertain

2:11p ET July 21, 2010 (MarketWatch)

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke said Wednesday the outlook for the economy is "unusually uncertain" and the Fed is willing to do more if growth proved to be weaker than forecast.

"We remain prepared to take further policy actions as needed to foster a return" to full employment with low and stable inflation, Bernanke said in written testimony prepared for the Senate Banking Committee.

Bernanke did not go further and elaborate on what the Fed might do.

His comments did not stray from the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's June policy meeting released last week.

In his prepared remarks, he stressed that the economy was growing and made no mention of the most recent disappointing economic news.

Employment, retail sales, industrial production and consumer sentiment data have been soft.

Despite these signs of a slowdown, Bernanke, in essence, kept a stiff upper lip. "The economic expansion that began in the middle of last year is proceeding at a moderate pace," he said.

Consumer and business spending should keep it going, he said.

"Although fiscal policy and inventory restocking will likely be providing less impetus to the recovery than they have in recent quarters, rising demand from households and businesses should help sustain growth," Bernanke said.

The Fed is forecasting growth in gross domestic product of 3% to 3.5% this year. This is above private-sector forecasts, which are expecting GDP to rise about 2.6% this year.

Bernanke repeated that the FOMC continues to expect that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.

He said the housing market remains "weak" and he said it will take "a significant amount of time" to restore the nearly 8.5 million jobs lost in the Great Recession.

"Financial conditions... have become less supportive of economic growth in recent months," Bernanke said. Bank loans outstanding have continued to contract.

On the positive side, Bernanke said there were some signs that the decline in spending on office buildings and factories may be slowing. He said U.S. exports have been expanding.

"My colleagues on the FOMC and I expect continued moderate growth, a gradual decline in the unemployment rate, and subdued inflation over the next several years," Bernanke said.

The majority of the FOMC said the risks to growth have switched to the downside, Bernanke noted.

The Fed slashed the funds rate close to zero in late 2008 and has kept rates there ever since.

The central bank has also purchased over $1 trillion dollars in housing-related assets in an attempt to keep long-term market interest rates low.

"Inflation has remained low" Bernanke said, with core inflation trending down over the past two years. Slack in labor markets had damped wage and price pressures and productivity gains have further reduced costs, he said.

In his prepared remarks, Bernanke talked a lot about the Fed's exit strategy from ultra-accommodative policy. In contrast, he may no additional comments about what further steps the Fed might take if the economy faltered.

He did not mention what the triggers to more asset purchases might be. Fed officials have said in recent speeches that the bar for further easing is quite high.

At some point, Bernanke said, the Fed must begin raising interest rates. It also plans to sell the housing-related assets to get back to a Treasuries-only portfolio.

"Such sales shall be implemented in accordance with a framework communicated well in advance and will be conducted at a gradual pace," Bernanke said.

Bernanke did not spare the senators from technical details of the Fed's balance sheet. He told them the Fed is considering reinvesting maturing Treasuries into shorter-term issues to lower the average maturity of its holdings. At the moment, the Fed reinvests in issues of identical duration.

...and so the flow shifted from stocks to treasuries and other such 'safety devices' and the rest is history (or should I say, history repeats). Don't forget the high frequency trading, skimming a few bucks, milliseconds before each buy/sell. Oh, those little black boxes, sh#!, I wish I had a few. BTW... THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE!!!

Green Day
Oakland council OK's plan to set up Pot factories. Teeeehuuu! I'm guessing this is why my boy DOS went on a vacate to Oak-town, all kelly-greened out (joke).

Missing Time
Here's an interesting read... Is Time Disappearing From The Universe?

There's a ton of the 'inevitable war' news, but I'll post it later, unless it starts to get too hot. Other than that, enjoy Hump Day.

Stay Strong and Aloha Always!

Grindman

Da Daily 7/19/2010

Today, I switch hats (and there are many) to graphic artist. Maybe I'll post some jpeg's of my work later for a critique. The beach was a trip yesterday. I watched the waves slightly chop up after the yesterday's EQ. I also chopped up brainwaves with my cuz Aaron as he explained 'absolutes' to me. Having an accessible human database of good information that does BMX freestyle on the regular is quite a treat for a moke like me. As I was reflecting on what he was talking about, I thought of how we humans are almost omnipotent, being that we have the ability to access good information at any time (goggle it). Back in the hey day, access to good information was key to monster monopolies and such. It was the key and continues to be the key to great power. Now, shifting through it all is key because of the quantity available. Knowledge Applied = Power. Well, on to Da Daily...

What Recovery?
US home builder slump worsens and takes stocks downward. BTW, contact me if you need someone to buy your house fast!

Obama to GOP: Restore unemployment benefits now! On another note... because it's 5:30am and the coffee didn't kick in yet, I like the site this article came from. Funny name... the 'Chron'. Round here and other parts of Kaneohe/Kahaluu/Tweakerville, I've been seeing a lot of 'chrons' lately because of unemployment.

Bankster Action
If you don't have precious metals (especially silver) yet, you might wanna read this. Supply and demand... go figure.

If you know where to look, your probably already setting up shop to contract services to bankrupt or going-to-be bankrupt states. If you have any wonderful ideas, hit me up. I'm always open to a JV or two.

Wonka Got Nuthin' On You
Yesterday, somebody bought 241,000 tonnes of cocoa beans, the largest single cocoa trade in 14 years. Wonder why? I do know someone personally that has a BIG stash growing on another island in Polynesia. The magic might have just begun...

Party Time
Tea party news. It seems like starting a tea party is all the craze nowadays.

Shutty D
US allows oil well to remain shut during seepage.

National Guard is set to arrive on Arizona's border, August 1st, helping to curb the flow of illegal immigrants and narcotics to the US.

The Inevitable
Rising tensions between the two. This is how Iran sees it. This is how Israel sees it.

Top Secret Flaws
Our hidden world as top secret America is growing beyond our control. The immense scale of the US intelligence network created after the attacks of September 11, 2001 has been revealed, raising concerns that it is too big to effectively combat international terrorism.

Candid Critter
Caught on camera for the first time...

"Sightings of the Horton Plains slender loris -- a small nocturnal primate with extremely thin arms and legs and huge round eyes -- are so rare that the creature has only been seen four times since 1937."

Awesomeness for a Monday. I really love nature and all it's wonders. Wucking Fonderful!!!

Stay Strong and Aloha Always!

Grindman

Enjoy The Show...

Next EQ on the 20th or 21st. More than likely, 6+ again. We'll see...

Hit me up if you wanna know how I do's what I does.

Stay Strong and Aloha Always!

Grindman

EQ Update!!!

Remember this from last week Thursday?

"My Shaky Predict
I suspect an EQ arriving in a few days... maybe between tomorrow and Sunday. I know little guys happen everyday, but I'm talking 6+"

I wasn't referring to that weird one that hit DC this week, although that is a first for that part of the country. There was a 7.3 and a 6.9 in Papa New Guinea and a 6.7 in Alaska that hit today. Whew! No Tsunami threat to Hawaii. Good, cuz I'll be fishing and taking it easty with the fam on a Sunday afternoon. Just goes to show, we may be on to something...

Hit me up if you want to know how.

Stay Strong and Aloha Always!

Grindman

Da Daily 7/16/2010

Wow, today the market is experiencing a ginormous sell off. You know what's even more crazy. I didn't know ginormous (giant/enormous) was a word until spell check didn't pick it up as an error. Oh, and a shout out to my boy DOS, who's B-Day is tomorrow. He'll be celebrating with his bike entered in the car show at Aloha Stadium, and Krystilez will be holding it down too, on stage and at the Hibred Clothing booth. Check it if you can. Tiki Boyeeez!!! Otay, on to Da Daily...

The Recovery Needs A Recovery
There is more downside to come as the CPI (Consumer Price Index) dropped 0.1%. In other words, consumer prices drop, sentiment sours. Hello! That's what happens in a deflationary period, which by the numbers we have been in for a little while now. I guess the Fed will have to drop to zero. Great day for a bear though, because...

Wall St. Stumbles
Whew! Good thing (actually great thing) we stayed on the short side of financial stocks yesterday as Citi and Bank of America took cracks today. BTW, this is NOT financial advice!!! It's just how a moke prospers on the downs. If I remember it correctly... one man's stumbling block is another man's stepping stone. All depends on how you look at it. Glass half full/empty type action.

All the financial reform bill talk is summed up pretty well in this Time article. It's just 2,300 pages of new agencies and new powers that formed the financial crisis.

...and The Basel III rules make it even harder for banks to lend to property companies and investors.

Capped
Cheers as Gulf oil spill is capped at last, or could the fix be temporary? I just wonder where all the missing pressure is going?

The Inevitable
EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Catherine Ashton is telling Israel to open all border crossing's. Gaza, open sesame!

...and it's all good because a U.S.-backed rocket shield is on track to protect Israeli towns against rocket attacks from the Gaza Strip.

At least 27 dead in suicide attack at Iranian mosque. Here's raw video of the situation. I warn you the video may disturb you.

...and Tehran is blaming the US and the UK for the bombing. Here's another saying Israel/US is getting the blame.

Also, this is interesting as to the effects of war and our soldiers. "Army reports record number of suicides for June."

Nature News
A puzzling collapse of Earth's atmosphere. Very interesting.

...and How often does an EQ happen in Washington DC that's not caused by all the BS moving around? Not often, but a shake happened today. I guess it's just Mama Nature and her hiccups. It's just her way of putting real power in check. When she talks, we have no choice, but to listen. Since were on the subject, you might wanna check out this article of someone else who talks while we listen.

...BTW, I believe there is still more shaking to come over the next day or two, though probably not in DC. Stay tuned.

Talking Trash
"Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann is demanding that a company seeking to ship garbage to the mainland present the city with key documents or risk losing its contract." Good, if they lose it, give it to us.

Well, Have a Tremendous Day Hoi Poloi...

Stay Strong and Aloha Always!

Grindman

Da Daily 7/15/2010

Howzit, it's a late one today. Good things happening as always. No complaints here... it's bright and sunny in Hawaii and things seem to be lining up quite nicely. Hope all is well with you and yours. It's almost lunchtime here. I saw a Red Lobster commercial last night and the very thought of it got my stomach rumbling right now, but first things first...

Congress
Congress passes financial reform bill. Damn thing is half the size of The Bible. Anyone read the fine print?

Financial Fuckery
JP Morgan earns $4.8B in 2nd quarter... hmmm, ya don't say? I thought them guys were TARP fund recipients. Well, free money is... free money. Especially, when your too big to fail.  

Bottoms Up
1.65 Million properties receive foreclosure filings in 1st half of 2010. I swear I heard a lot of people out there telling me the bottom was in. Really?
 

 ...and Homes lost to foreclosure, on track for 1 million in 2010. That about wraps it up for the bottom not being in.

Labor Lives
"For the week ending on July 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 429,000, a decrease of 29,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 458,000." This might be good news...

...but then,

Oh Ship!
the Baltic Dry Index, a measure of commodity shipping costs dropped for the 34th day in a row.

Yes, I am a bear, but I am an optimistic bear.

BP, Is It Really Over?
BP says oil is stopped as cap is tested.

World Changes (PI Typhoon Basyang and China Flooding)
"President Benigno Aquino III scolded the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) Wednesday for failing to predict that Typhoon Basyang (Conson) would lash Metro Manila." and "The Office of Civil Defense yesterday defended Pagasa administrator Prisco Nilo who was reported as having been reprimanded by President Aquino for failing to update the public on typhoon "Basyang" which directly hit Metro Manila after changing course." Whatever the case, the death toll is rising. R.I.P.

...and from the looks of things, China's getting it too.

Whoop There It Is
Whooping Cough kills 5 in Cali. When it's declared an epidemic... here's a tip for the bears. Not to profit off of death and destruction, but it is what it is. Back to supply and demand school... allow me to show you how Grindman thinks. There is no medical treatment for the Whoop but there is Infanrix-IPV+Hib, which is a combination vaccine against diphtheria, tetanus, whooping cough (pertussis), polio and Hib infection. Click here to see one of many companies that you can profit from at this time (I did, but this is NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. It is just what a moke from Hawaii is doing for himself). Like I said before, it is what it is, or even better said, what is, is... R.I.P. to the 5 lost in Cali.

My Shaky Predict
I suspect an EQ arriving in a few days... maybe between tomorrow and Sunday. I know little guys happen everyday, but I'm talking 6+
 
Have a nice day.

Stay Strong and Aloha Always!

Grindman